Federal Tracker: Liberals Lead by 14
March 2, 2026 (Toronto, ON) – A new national survey from Liaison Strategies shows the federal Liberals have established a significant 14-point lead over the Conservatives among decided and leaning voters with 44% support.
The Weekly Federal Tracker shows the Conservatives in second place at 30%, followed by the NDP at 9%, the Bloc Québécois at 6%, and the People’s Party at 4%.
Liaison surveyed a random sample of 1,000 Canadians from February 23 to March 7, 2026, using Interactive Voice Recording (IVR) technology. To ensure a representative sample, participants were reached through random digit dialing (RDD) across both landline and cellular phone networks. Each week, the rolling survey refreshes the sample by adding 500 participants and removing 500. The margin of error is ±3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Liaison Strategies is one of the most accurate polling firms in Canada. It ranked #1 in accuracy in the 2025 Ontario election and #2 nationally in the 2025 federal election. Liaison is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC).
David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies, said:
"As we move further into 2026, the Liberal lead appears to have solidified with Mark Carney as leader. Double digit leads for the Federal Liberals are, for now, the new normal. The Liberals lead in all regions except the Prairies and Alberta - but even there the Conservatives are barely hanging onto leads of 4% and 5% respectively."
"Yesterday, as predicted, the Prime Minister called three by-elections which may deliver him a fragile majority government - but a majority nonetheless. The two by-elections in Toronto are a virtual lock for the Liberals, with the third, in Terrebonne, a genuine toss up."
"Where is Terrebonne anyway?"
"On this map you're seeing the riding directly south is Alfred-Pellan, which is one of the Laval ridings, Laval being the largest suburb of Montreal. In the bottom left you see Honore-Mercier riding which is a Montreal riding on the island. To get to the city of Terrebonne from, say, Centre Bell (home of the Montreal Canadiens, it is right downtown) would take you about 40-50 minutes if traffic was alright."
"Terrebonne is very francophone with about 84% of residents reporting French as their single mother tongue. Relative to other ridings it neighbours, there are not many immigrants, though there were approximately 15,000 of them in the riding in 2021 (a third of them were born in Haiti). This is a commuter riding where 87% drive to work compared to 5% who use public transit."
"Anyway, I mention all this because the national poll is more or less what you might expect at this point: the Liberals lead everywhere except Alberta and the Prairies, they do better with women than men, but lead with both. They are tied with the Conservatives among the 18-34 cohort but lead with everyone else."
"Mark Carney's approval rating has gone up again and this week he is at a 64% approval rating. Mr. Poilievre's favourability has inched up from 35% to 36% but he has a net favourability of -18."
"If there is a spring election the Liberals are the clear favourites though how the election is called would impact the numbers and the narrative."
"But who needs an election if you can win a majority through by-elections? And this brings us back to Terrebonne. In theory, the Liberals can win because they have a 13-point lead over the Bloc Quebecois in Quebec."
"Since the riding is not far from downtown Montreal, there is no logistical barrier for potentially hundreds of Liberal volunteers to descend upon the riding - but this is also true for the Bloc who will be pouring everything they have into trying to take back the seat."
"The election in Terrebonne was won by one vote, and that election was thrown out by the Supreme Court of Canada for irregularities. So really, anything could happen. Election Day is April 13th but the parties may have a good idea of what is happening when the advance polls close on April 6 (Elections Canada will give them a list of who voted). The rest of us will have to wait."
Detailed Poll Report:
About Liaison Strategies
Liaison Strategies is a national public opinion research firm. With 12 years of experience in Canadian polling, David Valentin, principal, has fielded hundreds of projects at the municipal, provincial and federal levels and appeared across Canadian media to discuss insights. Liaison is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), Canada’s voice of the research, analytics, and insights profession both domestically and globally.