Federal Tracker: Liberals Lead, 39% (+1) to 36% (-1)
January 12 (Toronto, ON) – A new Liaison Strategies national survey finds the Liberals maintaining a modest advantage over the Conservatives. Among decided and leaning voters, the Liberals lead with 39% to the Conservatives 36%, with the NDP at 12%and the Bloc at 8%. Meanwhile, Mark Carney’s approval rating has inched upward after several weeks of steady decline.
Liaison surveyed a random sample of 1,000 Canadians from January 2 to January 10, 2026, using Interactive Voice Recording (IVR) technology. To ensure a representative sample, participants were reached through random digit dialing (RDD) across both landline and cellular phone networks. Each week, the rolling survey refreshes the sample by adding 500 participants and removing 500. The margin of error is ±3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Liaison Strategies is one of the most accurate polling firms in Canada. It ranked #1 in accuracy in the 2025 Ontario election and #2 nationally in the 2025 federal election. Liaison is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC).
David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies, said:
“This is a competitive national environment, but the story is less about a single topline number and more about the map. The Liberals are still holding key ground in Ontario and Atlantic Canada, while Conservative strength remains concentrated in Alberta and the Prairies. Notably, the Liberals and the Bloc Québécois are effectively tied in Quebec - an outcome that would make a majority path far more difficult for the Liberals."
“In more positive news for the Liberals they are seeing a slight recovery in British Columbia. They have trailed the Conservatives there for weeks and are now in a statistical tied with the Conservatives (the Liberals are up by two points).”
“Prime Minister Mark Carney’s approval has largely been drifting downward -especially over the last few months and weeks. That’s why this week offers a rare bit of positive movement: his approval ticks up one point to 56%. It’s well within the margin of error, but it may be an early sign that the decline has levelled off.”
“Because this is a weekly tracker, it’s always worth asking what might be driving any positive movement for the Liberals. My best guess is that it’s connected to the Trump administration and the volume of Trump-related coverage. We saw during the election that the more Trump dominated the news cycle, the better the Liberals tended to do. If that dynamic is re-emerging, it could meaningfully shape the numbers - especially if Canadians were headed toward an election this year.”
Detailed Poll Report:
About Liaison Strategies
Liaison Strategies is a national public opinion research firm. With 12 years of experience in Canadian polling, David Valentin, principal, has fielded hundreds of projects at the municipal, provincial and federal levels and appeared across Canadian media to discuss insights. Liaison is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), Canada’s voice of the research, analytics, and insights profession both domestically and globally.