Federal Tracker: Liberals Down 2; Lead by 10
March 2, 2026 (Toronto, ON) – A new national survey released today by Liaison Strategies shows the Liberal Party of Canada, led by Prime Minister Mark Carney, holding a double-digit lead. If a federal election were held today, the Liberals would secure 43% (-2) of the decided and leaning vote, maintaining a significant 10-point advantage over the Conservative Party, which stands at 33% (no change).
The Weekly Federal Tracker shows the New Democratic Party (NDP) holding 9% support, followed by the Bloc Québécois at 6%. The Green Party sits at 3%, while the People’s Party of Canada (PPC) and other parties account for the remaining 4%.
Liaison surveyed a random sample of 1,000 Canadians from February 16 to February 28, 2026, using Interactive Voice Recording (IVR) technology. To ensure a representative sample, participants were reached through random digit dialing (RDD) across both landline and cellular phone networks. Each week, the rolling survey refreshes the sample by adding 500 participants and removing 500. The margin of error is ±3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Liaison Strategies is one of the most accurate polling firms in Canada. It ranked #1 in accuracy in the 2025 Ontario election and #2 nationally in the 2025 federal election. Liaison is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC).
David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies, said:
"The latest data highlights a clear regional divide across the country. While the Liberals maintain a commanding lead in Atlantic Canada at 53%, Ontario at 47%, and Quebec at 40%, the Conservatives continue to hold significant ground in the West. In Alberta and the Manitoba/Saskatchewan region, the Conservatives are the strongest contenders, currently holding 48% and 47% of the support respectively. This regional variation underscores the distinct political landscapes across Canada as parties look toward the next election."
"That being said... the race has tightened significantly in Alberta. While the Conservatives lead, they are only ahead by 10 points. This is not the first time we have seen tightening in Alberta but it remains to be seen if this will be a new long term trend or a minor statistical blip."
"Demographically, the Liberal Party shows a substantial advantage among female voters, where they hold a 17-point lead, 48% compared to the Conservatives' 31%. Age also plays a critical role in these findings; Liberal support is highest among those aged 50–64, reaching 50%. However, the competition is significantly more intense among younger voters. In the 18–34 age demographic, the race is a virtual dead heat, with the Conservatives leading the Liberals by just three percentage points, 40% to 37%."
"Leadership remains a defining factor in the current tracker, with Prime Minister Mark Carney maintaining a robust 61% (-2) national approval rating. Conversely, Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre continues to face high unfavourable numbers, with 55% (+1) of Canadians viewing him unfavourably compared to 35% who hold a favourable view."
"We have gone from a 12 point lead for the Liberals to a 10 point lead, and while it is tempting to say that things are getting better for the Tories, the Liberals are mostly down due to rounding (previously they got rounded up, now they are rounded down). The Conservatives have clocked their second week at 33% showing no movement."
"Given two weeks of tighter than expected regional numbers we will keep our eye on Alberta, though, for now, there is no spring election in sight."
Detailed Poll Report:
About Liaison Strategies
Liaison Strategies is a national public opinion research firm. With 12 years of experience in Canadian polling, David Valentin, principal, has fielded hundreds of projects at the municipal, provincial and federal levels and appeared across Canadian media to discuss insights. Liaison is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), Canada’s voice of the research, analytics, and insights profession both domestically and globally.