Federal Tracker: Liberals Continue 8 Point Lead
February 2, 2026 (Toronto, ON) – A new Liaison Strategies national survey finds the Liberal Party of Canada maintaining an eight-point advantage over the Conservative Party of Canada. Among decided and leaning voters, the Liberals lead with 43% to the Conservatives’ 35%, with the New Democratic Party at 8%, and the Bloc Québécois at 7%. Simultaneously, Prime Minister Mark Carney's approval rating has reached an approval rating of 64%, while 56% of Canadians hold an unfavourable view of Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre.
Liaison surveyed a random sample of 1,000 Canadians from January 19 to January 31, 2026, using Interactive Voice Recording (IVR) technology. To ensure a representative sample, participants were reached through random digit dialing (RDD) across both landline and cellular phone networks. Each week, the rolling survey refreshes the sample by adding 500 participants and removing 500. The margin of error is ±3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Liaison Strategies is one of the most accurate polling firms in Canada. It ranked #1 in accuracy in the 2025 Ontario election and #2 nationally in the 2025 federal election. Liaison is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC).
David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies, said:
"The topline is steady with the Liberals still sitting on an eight-point advantage among decided voters. The Liberals are clearly enjoying a halo effect from the Davos speech and resulting international coverage. It does beg the question however, is this the new normal or just a temporary bump that we'll see recede in the coming weeks?"
"Ontario continues to be the central pillar of the Liberal lead, sitting at 48% to 35% among decided voters. However, the real story this week is in Quebec. Last week, the Bloc Québécois held a narrow lead, but the Liberals have now surged ahead with 38% to the Bloc’s 33%."
"In British Columbia, the race has tightened considerably. The double-digit Liberal lead we saw last week has narrowed to just four points (42% to 38%)."
"Prime Minister Mark Carney's personal numbers continue to climb, with his approval now sitting at 64%. He is seeing his strongest support among Canadians aged 65 and older (69%) and in Atlantic Canada and Ontario (both at 70%). His net approval rating remains a powerful asset for the Liberal brand."
"For Pierre Poilievre, the numbers remain challenging following the recent party activity in Calgary. His national favourability sits at 37%, while 56% of Canadians view him unfavourably. While he maintains strong support in Alberta (55% favourable) and Manitoba/Saskatchewan (46% favourable), he continues to struggle to make inroads in the population-rich regions of Ontario and Quebec, where his unfavourability stands at 56% and 65% respectively."
"As we move into February, the question is whether the Conservatives can find a way to break the 35% ceiling they've been hitting, or if the Liberals can translate Carney's personal popularity into an even wider structural lead."
Detailed Poll Report:
About Liaison Strategies
Liaison Strategies is a national public opinion research firm. With 12 years of experience in Canadian polling, David Valentin, principal, has fielded hundreds of projects at the municipal, provincial and federal levels and appeared across Canadian media to discuss insights. Liaison is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), Canada’s voice of the research, analytics, and insights profession both domestically and globally.