Federal Tracker: Liberal Lead Narrows to 13 Points
Liberals lead 44% to 31%, with the NDP at 14%. Conservatives gain for a third straight update, Carney approval is 65%, and Alberta is effectively tied at 43% Conservative to 42% Liberal.
October 26, 2026 (Toronto, ON) - The latest Liaison Strategies National Tracker finds the Liberals at 44%, the Conservatives at 31% and the NDP at 14% among decided and leaning voters. The Liberal lead has narrowed for a third consecutive week, falling from 18 points at the start of October to 13 points now.
Liaison surveyed a random sample of 1,000 Canadians from October 11 to October 24, 2026, using Interactive Voice Recording (IVR) technology. Participants were reached through random digit dialling (RDD) across both landline and cellular phone networks. The resulting data was weighted to match targets based on the 2021 Census. For the total sample, the margin of error is +/- 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, and is higher for subsamples.
This rolling survey combines two weeks of interviews; consecutive weekly releases share one week of sampling. Results may not add to 100% due to rounding.
Liaison Strategies is one of the most accurate polling firms in Canada. It ranked #1 in accuracy in the 2025 Ontario election and #2 nationally in the 2025 federal election. Liaison is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council.
David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies, said:
"The Conservatives have added a point in each of the past three updates, taking them from 28% to 31%. Over the same period, the Liberals have slipped from 46% to 44%. Both changes have helped narrow the gap. The Conservatives are recovering, but they are still 13 points behind."
"The Liberal lead is shrinking without a decline in Carney's approval. Sixty-five per cent approve of his performance, up from 64% last week, while 27% disapprove, down from 28%. Canadians are giving the Liberals a little less support on the ballot while continuing to give the prime minister strong marks."
"Poilievre's personal ratings have improved for a second week. Thirty-five per cent view him favourably and 52% unfavourably. Two weeks ago, those figures were 32% and 55%. He has reduced the gap against him from 23 points to 17, but a majority still have an unfavourable impression of him."
"The national Conservative gain is not mirrored in Alberta. The Conservatives are at 43% and the Liberals at 42%, compared with 44% and 41% last week. On October 5, the gap was 11 points. It is now one point."
"The Ontario result is more useful to the Conservatives this week. They have 35% to the Liberals' 46%, narrowing the gap from 14 points to 11. In Quebec, the Liberals have 43%, the Bloc 25% and the Conservatives 18%. The Conservatives have gained a point in each province since last week, while the Liberals have lost two in each."
"Among men, the Liberals and Conservatives are just three points apart, at 40% and 37%. Among women, the Liberal lead is 23 points, at 49% to 26%. The Conservatives are much closer to the Liberals among men than their national result might suggest. The much larger deficit among women is still holding them back."
"Lewis and Poilievre now have the same favourable rating, at 35%, but that is where the similarity ends. Twenty-eight per cent view Lewis unfavourably, compared with 52% for Poilievre. Another 37% are unsure about Lewis or unfamiliar with him, compared with 13% for Poilievre."
"The NDP remains at 14%, even as Lewis's favourable rating rises from 33% to 35%. Its strongest region is British Columbia, where it has 24%, behind the Liberals at 40% and the Conservatives at 30%. The Bloc has 6% nationally, the Greens 3%, the People's Party 2% and other parties 1%."
"Three weeks of gains give the Conservatives something to build on. For the Liberals, the question is whether the recent erosion stops in the mid-40s or continues. A popular prime minister helps, but it has not prevented their lead from narrowing."
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About Liaison Strategies
Liaison Strategies is a national public opinion research firm. With 13 years of experience in Canadian polling, David Valentin, principal, has fielded hundreds of projects at the municipal, provincial and federal levels and appeared across Canadian media to discuss insights. Liaison is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), Canada's voice of the research, analytics, and insights profession both domestically and globally.