Chow Continues Steady Climb as Battle for Second and Fourth Continues

May 15, 2023 (Toronto, ON) – A new Liaison Strategies poll for the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada (NEPMCC) finds Olivia Chow gaining ever more support as the rest of the field battles it out for second and fourth place.

Conducted from May 12-13, 2023, with interactive voice response, the poll of 1,257 Toronto voters has a margin of error of +/- 2.69%, 19 times out of 20.

"The story of the election so far has been Olivia Chow's slow but steady ascent. Since announcing Chow has dominated public opinion surveys and this week it's not different," said David Valentin, Principal of Liaison Strategies. "This week Chow hits a new high in our weekly tracking of 30% support among decided voters."

"What's ironic is that in 2014 her 2023 poll numbers would not have been enough to win. The 2014 election was won by John Tory with just over 40% - 30% wouldn't have been enough."

"Chow continues to benefit from a large field of candidates - now number 102, that are dividing up support. While she continues in the lead, Saunders and Matlow continue their fight for second, and Bradford and Hunter continue their fight for fourth. This week Saunders leads Matlow by 1% among decided voters, within the margin of error, while Bradford and Hunter are tied at 12%."

The Liaison Survey found among all voters including those undecided (change from last week):

32% Undecided (no change)
20% Chow (+2)
11% Saunders (no change)
10% Matlow (-1)
8% Bradford (no change)
8% Hunter (+1)
5% Bailao (-1)
4% Someone Else (-1)
1% Furey (no change)
1% Perruzza (+1)

Among Decided Voters Only (change from last week):

30% Chow (+3)
16% Saunders (no change)
15% Matlow (-1)
12% Bradford (no change)
12% Hunter (+2)
7% Bailao (-2)
6% Someone Else (-1)
2% Furey (no change)
1% Perruzza (+1)

"The trend is always more important than any individual snapshot. With more voters tuning in with the election approaching there will be an opportunity for candidates to break out," continued Valentin.

"Turnout in by elections is always a mystery though it would be surprising, despite 102 candidates, if it exceeded turnout for the last Toronto general election.

Campaigns have a lot of work to do to reach the large pool of undecided voters," concluded Valentin.

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