Burlington: Meed Ward Leads Nisan by 5; Half Say City Moving in Wrong Direction

August 16, 2026 (Burlington, ON) - A new Liaison Strategies Burlington survey conducted for The Campaign Shop shows Mayor Marianne Meed Ward leading Rory Nisan by 5 points among decided and leaning voters, while half of residents say the city is moving in the wrong direction.

If a mayoral election were held today, Meed Ward would receive 38% among decided and leaning voters, followed by Nisan at 33%, Lisa Kearns at 23%, and someone else at 6%.

Among all voters, Meed Ward is at 32%, Nisan is at 26%, Kearns is at 18%, someone else is at 5%, and 19% are undecided.

The survey also finds that 50% of Burlington residents say the city is moving in the wrong direction, compared to 35% who say it is moving in the right direction and 15% who are not sure.

Meed Ward's job approval is narrowly positive: 46% approve of the job she is doing as mayor, 43% disapprove, 8% are not sure, and 4% are not familiar with her.

Liaison surveyed a random sample of 515 Burlington residents from August 7 to August 11, 2026, using Interactive Voice Recording (IVR) technology. Participants were reached through random digit dialling (RDD) across both landline and cellular phone networks. The resulting data was weighted to match targets based on the 2021 Census. For the total sample, the margin of error is +/- 4.3 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. The margin is higher for sub-samples. Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding.

Liaison Strategies is one of the most accurate polling firms in Canada. It ranked #1 in accuracy in the 2025 Ontario election and #2 nationally in the 2025 federal election. Liaison is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council.

David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies, said:

"This is still Marianne Meed Ward's race, but it is not a comfortable lead. Among decided and leaning voters, Meed Ward is at 38%, Nisan is at 33%, Kearns is at 23%, and someone else is at 6%."

"Among all voters, Meed Ward leads Nisan by 6 points, 32% to 26%, with Kearns at 18%. The 19% undecided number matters. In a municipal race, that is a large enough undecided pool to keep the campaign fluid."

"The warning sign for City Hall is the direction number. Half of Burlington residents say the city is moving in the wrong direction, compared to 35% who say it is moving in the right direction. That is the kind of city mood that gives challengers room to make a change argument."

"Meed Ward's approval is narrowly positive, but it is not dominant. Forty-six per cent approve of the job she is doing as mayor, while 43% disapprove."

"The budget and finance question is also important. Meed Ward is trusted most by 29%, Nisan is close behind at 26%, Kearns is at 15%, and 26% are not sure. On a core municipal issue, Nisan is within range of the mayor, but the uncertainty is just as large as his support."

"On issues, Burlington residents are focused first on affordability and growth. Taxes and affordability lead at 23%, housing and development is close behind at 22%, public safety is at 14%, and traffic and transit and infrastructure and roads are each at 12%."

"Overall, the race starts with Meed Ward ahead, Nisan competitive, and Kearns meaningful. The city mood is negative, the budget trust numbers are close, and nearly one-in-five voters are undecided. That makes Burlington a race worth watching."

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About Liaison Strategies
Liaison Strategies is a national public opinion research firm. With 13 years of experience in Canadian polling, David Valentin, principal, has fielded hundreds of projects at the municipal, provincial and federal levels and appeared across Canadian media to discuss insights. Liaison is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC), Canada's voice of the research, analytics, and insights profession both domestically and globally.