Milton Down to the Wire; Tories Lead in LKM
April 26, 2024 (Toronto, ON) – New Liaison polls commissioned by the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada (NEPMCC) show the Milton by election coming down to the wire while Ford's PCs lead comfortably in Lambton-Kent-Middlesex.
The by elections were paired and Election Day is May 2nd.
Conducted from April 23-25, 2024, using interactive voice response technology, the Lambton-Kent-Middlesex poll surveyed 367 voters and has a margin of error of =/- 5.11, 19 times out of 20; while the Milton poll surveyed 433 voters and has a margin of error of +/- 4.71, 19 times out of 20.
Liaison is a member of the Canadian Research Insights Council (CRIC). Results may not add up to 100 due to rounding.
Milton Decided & Leaning:
41% - Galen Naidoo Harris (Ontario Liberal) (+2)
39% - Zee Hamid (PC) (no change)
9% - Katherine Cirlincione* (Ontario NDP) (-1)
5% - Kyle Hutton (Ontario Greens) (no change)
"Our previous survey found Milton in a dead heat - and while the Liberals are up slightly (+2) the race is still with the margin of error," said David Valentin, principal at Liaison Strategies.
"The race is going to come down to voter turnout and how well the local campaigns have done at both identifying the vote and getting their supporters to the polls."
Lambton-Kent-Middlesex Decided & Leaning:
52%- Steve Pinsonneault (PC) (+13)
21% - Cathy Burghardt-Jesson (Ontario Liberal) (-5)
14% - Kathryn Shailer (Ontario NDP) (no change)
8% - Andraena Tilgner (Ontario Greens) (-4)
"Over in Lambton-Kent-Middlesex most of the undecided vote has broken to the PCs who are now at 52% of the vote among decided and leaning voters. The Liberals are in second place which is an improvement on the previous election result in the riding, with the Ontario NDP in third."
"This was not expected to be a close contest and with only 9% of voters undecided in Lambton-Kent-Middlesex, the race is more or less locked in given the large PC margin."
"We'll be watching the results of both by elections closely, especially Milton. If Bonnie Crombie is going to become premier she has to win seats like Milton. If Doug Ford is going to be re-elected seats like Milton have to return PC MPPs," concluded Valentin.
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